After the surge of China's PV policy urgent need to turn into high-quality supply
With the "630" the end of 2016, the first half of the installation of the tide finally come to an end. According to the preliminary statistics of the relevant departments, the first half of 2016 grid-connected PV capacity of about 22.5GW, of which only in June added about 11.3GW. It should be stressed that, on the one hand, the final accurate and additional network installed capacity will be the National Energy Board published information shall prevail; the other hand, the focal point of the photovoltaic installed more, different sources of information statistics will exist Some differences, but the difference will not be too great.
From another point of view, from January to June 2016, only the national grid within the scope of operation of the new photovoltaic network capacity reached 20.7GW or so. If you take into account the Southern Power Grid and Mengxi power grid and other regions within the installed capacity of the first half of the new photovoltaic installed capacity will exceed 22GW.
From the monthly data can be seen in the first half of the 22GW installed capacity, one is part of the plant is installed in 2015 but the grid in 2016, the initial estimate of this part of the amount of about 4GW. In addition, part of the photovoltaic power plant in order to grab 630 tariffs, and did not complete the installation of all components of the plant is expected to 630 before the completion of the installation of components is not about 1GW. Therefore, in the first half of 2016 the installation of new photovoltaic installation is about 17GW.
In the distributed PV, the National Energy Board from January to March announced a new installed capacity of 970MW, it is understood that in April and May of the new installed capacity of 370MW and 220MW, respectively. Therefore, 1-5 months of distributed PV installed capacity reached 1560MW, according to the average monthly additional installed 300MW calculation, the first half of the distributed PV installed capacity of about 1900MW.
Deep digging domestic photovoltaic market "rich ore"
In fact, along the way, the Chinese PV industry is not smooth sailing. As early as 2012, when the long-term dependence on foreign markets of China's photovoltaic industry suffered a "double reverse" crisis, the Chinese government is determined to activate the huge domestic PV market, the decision to save the adversity of PV industry is of great significance.
2013 "on the promotion of the healthy development of photovoltaic industry, a number of opinions" and a series of preferential subsidies for PV feed-in policy release, making the domestic photovoltaic power generation application market is rapidly expanding, driving the photovoltaic industry as a whole operating conditions improved significantly.
"Although the external environment is poor, but with the support of the domestic market, coupled with the domestic photovoltaic business target market expansion to the Middle East, Africa and other regions, dependence on a single market weakened, making pressure on photovoltaic enterprises to reduce the photovoltaic industry to good. "National Energy Board Deputy Director of New Energy and Renewable Energy Liang Zhipeng pointed out. Data show that in 2015 the output of 43GW, the proportion of domestic sales has exceeded 40%.
In the photovoltaic power plant construction, the total installed capacity of the country in 2015 more than 100 million kilowatts of the province of 11. The western region is dominated by the situation is improving, has shown a pattern of common development of eastern, central and western regions. As of 2015, the central and eastern regions have six provinces total installed capacity of more than 1 million kilowatts. Among them, the proportion of distributed PV increased rapidly.
At the same time, PV application mode gradually diversified, although the large-scale ground power plants still occupy more than 80% of the total PV installed capacity in China, but in 2015 photovoltaic power generation has become a diversified pattern, industrial plants, public buildings, and tens of thousands of households Various distributed applications, many areas of the photovoltaic and agriculture, fisheries, ecological management combined, especially the combination of photovoltaic power generation and poverty alleviation, opened up a variety of applications combined with the photovoltaic industry a new model.
"'Thirteen Five' period, China will also add 15 million kilowatts per year to 20 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power generation, continue to maintain the strongest growth in the world." National Energy Secretary Noor Baike Li said.
Low prices to promote the PV market eruption?
At the same time, with the opening of China's PV market, large-scale photovoltaic upstream enterprises have been cut into downstream power plants and distributed system development, and have gone through many very long and curved roads. However, with a large number of enterprises to enter the industry, the price war has been quietly rising. This does not, the distributed roof market has been "possible" to "trillion market" successful transformation.
According to public information, large-scale power plant EPC total price is close to 7 / Wp. However, the distributed power station capacity is small, complex access points, complex roof installation, design complexity and other factors, in principle, the price is not lower than the large ground station (excluding the AC step-up part).
Distributed power station construction units as a result of low starting point, the user scattered, will inevitably lead to fierce competition. The competition is a direct reflection of the local price. As the solar power station has a very strong financial attributes, because the initial installation of a direct impact on the project's return. However, the solar system, he is a system, not a product, but not a standard component. Blind price competition, will only allow owners to lose more, the wrong guide the market.
Many in the industry pointed out that since solar energy is a system, there must be pre-sale design, quality standards, operation monitoring, after-sales service and even network services and many other links. Complex systems need to complex services, if manufacturers blindly lower sales prices for short-term sales share, the ultimate loss or out of real money to the end customers.
For example, what is an A-level component? What is supervision? What is insurance? How to operate? How to monitor? These closely related parameters of the system, in the low-cost competitive projects are often rarely mentioned. Not to mention what power generation warranty. Therefore, the low price does not ignite the Chinese PV market, only to the healthy development of China's photovoltaic industry has brought cloud fog.
"Immortal soldiers is a good soldier"
But it is undeniable that the policy has always been a core variable in the Chinese PV industry. December 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission issued "on the improvement of onshore wind power photovoltaic power generation benchmark price policy notice" to June 20, 2016 as a grid deadline: If the June 30 before the grid, the implementation of 2016 Year benchmark electricity price, the new tariff significantly reduced.
In order to catch in June 30 before the grid and get a higher price, since 2016, the field of photovoltaic downstream power station appeared to grab the tide. Public statistics show that in the first half of 2016 China's installed capacity of solar photovoltaic nearly 13 GW, while the same period in 2015 is 7.73 GW.
But blindly follow suit the risk of expansion is also hidden. Prior to the typical lessons, such as Yingli through expansion in 2012, 2013 for two consecutive years won the first component of the name of the first shipment, but can not catch up with the 2015 industry-wide pace of profitability. China Photovoltaic Industry Association, Wang Liang, deputy director of the members said, on the one hand should encourage the rapid development of new power photovoltaic rise, on the other hand, must be based on sound and sustainable, Poly GCL, Trina Solar, solar power is still Industry model of gradual and orderly development, "undead soldiers is a good soldier."
Another risk is that the market is shrinking due to serious delays in getting rid of light and subsidies. State Grid Energy Research Institute statistics show that in 2015 the national grid dispatch range (excluding Mengxi) total amount of discarded photoelectric was 4.65 billion kwh, 12.62% abandoned rate. June 3 issued by the National Energy Board in 2016 photovoltaic power generation implementation plan, has been abandoned light serious Xinjiang, Gansu, Yunnan suspended targets. At the same time, due to lack of renewable energy development fund problems caused by subsidies in the short term is also difficult to solve.
The industry believes that due to abandon the light and subsidies, the first half of the market demand may be quickly grabbed down. At that time, PV a new round of overcapacity or a comeback. Starting from the second half of 2015, with the rapid development of photovoltaic industry, some have been discontinued "zombie" has been resurgent.